Middle East crisis: Gaza deal reached, Iran hits Kuwait base

President Donald Trump announced Friday that an agreement has been reached for Hamas to disarm and for Israel to withdraw its forces from Gaza, claiming the pact would unfold in meticulously structured phases. Hours later, Iran’s army launched drone strikes at US military facilities at the Ahmad Al Jaber airbase in Kuwait, according to Iranian state media, dramatically raising the stakes in the ongoing US-Iran confrontation that has rattled the region.

Gaza Deal: Disarmament in Phases, but Sequencing Disputes Loom

In a social media post, Trump said the deal would see Hamas complete disarmament, after which Israeli forces would withdraw, allowing an International Stabilization Force to work alongside a new Palestinian police force to ensure safety for Gaza’s residents and neighbors. While senior Hamas officials reportedly accepted the plan, a critical sticking point has emerged: the order of operations.

Ghazi Hamad, a member of Hamas’s negotiating team, told Al Jazeera that the group would not take any action regarding disarmament before Israel’s withdrawal from the Strip. On the other side, an Israeli official told Reuters that the proposed terms were unsatisfactory, emphasizing that Israel demands the complete disarmament of Hamas, including the removal of weapons and full demilitarisation of Gaza as a precondition for any process. The official said the current plan does not provide a satisfactory response to these demands and that Israel has conveyed its objections.

This impasse has persisted for nine months since the US-brokered ceasefire, with negotiations largely stuck over implementing phase two—disarmament and reconstruction. Trump’s announcement appears to offer a new framework, but the fundamental disagreement over sequencing remains unresolved.

Iran Strikes Kuwait Base as US-Iran Tensions Boil Over

The Iranian military’s drone attack on the Ahmad Al Jaber airbase in Kuwait was reportedly in retaliation for recent US strikes on Iran, including an attack on a home in Qeshm, according to Iran’s state media. The strike occurred as regional tensions continue to spiral, with Iran also targeting a Chinese firm’s building in Kuwait on Thursday, killing a worker, as confirmed by Kuwait’s military. This came just hours after Jordan’s air defences intercepted five missiles launched from Iran.

These incidents signal that the conflict is no longer confined to direct US-Iran exchanges but is now spilling into neighbouring states, jeopardising stability across the Gulf region.

Saudi Arabia Readies Military Action Against Houthis

Amid the escalating conflict, Saudi Arabia is reportedly preparing a significant military offensive against the Houthis, potentially involving both sea and land operations in central Yemen, according to Yemeni sources. The move is aimed at breaking the Houthi chokehold on the kingdom’s oil exports through the southern Red Sea, a vital artery for global energy supplies.

On Thursday, Saudi Arabia announced the formation of a maritime defence alliance comprising 14 regional countries to secure navigation around the Bab al-Mandab strait, a critical chokepoint through which a substantial portion of global trade passes. This is a clear signal of the kingdom’s intent to protect its economic interests and push back against the Houthis.

Shipping Disruptions and Economic Fallout

The conflict’s impact on maritime trade is already measurable. Data from Kpler shows that 25 commodities vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb strait on Thursday, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained low, with only two tankers transiting. Analysts expect major oil companies to post large profits as fighting between Iran and the US impedes petroleum shipments. Indeed, six of Europe’s largest oil companies have already reported first-quarter profits totalling $22bn, a 43% increase year-on-year, according to Global Witness.

Further afield, Egypt’s government said authorities were analysing drone fragments after an unprecedented strike on one of its ports. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi warned of regional escalation after a fire broke out on two gas vessels in the Damietta port—one US-owned—resulting from a drone strike, the first attack to target the country since the conflict began.

Next Steps

The coming days will be critical as world leaders react to Trump’s Gaza announcement and Iran’s brazen attack on Kuwait. With the region on a knife’s edge, the international community faces the urgent challenge of de-escalating multiple simultaneous crises, from the stalled Gaza negotiations to the spiralling US-Iran war and Saudi Arabia’s looming offensive. Without a coordinated diplomatic push, the situation risks spiralling further into a broader regional conflagration.