Ben Carroll confirms leadership challenge against Jacinta Allan

Victoria's deputy premier, Ben Carroll, has confirmed he will nominate for the leadership of the state Labor Party, setting up a challenge against Premier Jacinta Allan just four months before the Victorian election. In a statement released on Monday, Carroll said a cross-factional group of ministers and MPs had informed him that Allan no longer had the support of caucus and asked him to stand for the leadership.

The Challenge

Carroll said he told Allan of his intention to contest the leadership on Monday after the group, which included ministers from Allan's own socialist left faction as well as right-aligned frontbenchers, urged the premier to stand down. The group met with Allan before the scheduled cabinet meeting to convey that she had lost the majority of support within the parliamentary party.

In his statement posted on social media platform X, Carroll acknowledged that the decision was not easy, but said the stakes at the upcoming election were simply too high. He emphasized that a group of colleagues had approached him, and that it was clear the premier had lost the majority of caucus support.

Allan's Response

According to sources close to the premier, Allan refused the request to step down and instead asked the ministers at the meeting to resign, given they had lost faith in her leadership. The ministers also refused. In a letter to Victorian Labor state secretary Steve Staikos, Allan indicated she would contest a leadership ballot, should one be required. She formally notified the party of her intention to be a candidate for the leadership.

The letter, seen by Guardian Australia, requests that the party be prepared to conduct an election for the leadership in the event a ballot is held. The process, introduced after the instability of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd federal era, is untested at the state level and would see a leader elected based on 50% of MPs' votes and 50% of rank-and-file party members' votes.

Caucus Divisions

The group that met with Allan included ministers Ingrid Stitt and Gabrielle Williams, as well as MP Mathew Hilakari from the socialist left faction, and right-aligned frontbenchers Anthony Carbines and Lizzie Blandthorn. However, one minister told Guardian Australia that not all parliamentarians within the left faction were consulted before the meeting, and that there was no uniform position within the grouping. Another minister described the situation as 'just one big smoke machine,' suggesting that talk of a leadership challenge may not be as consolidated as it appears.

Attorney General Sonya Kilkenny, a key supporter of the premier, has defended Allan, indicating that the premier has her backing. Other sources close to Allan have stated that she is 'not going anywhere.'

Next Steps

The leadership challenge could culminate in a ballot at Tuesday's caucus meeting. However, with Allan refusing to stand down, the process may extend over several weeks as both the parliamentary caucus and Labor party members vote. The outcome will determine whether Allan remains premier or is replaced by Carroll. The election is scheduled for November 2026, but with party instability, the Labor government's prospects may be affected. Political analysts will be watching closely as the party navigates this internal crisis.