El-Sayed defeats AIPAC-backed Stevens in Michigan Senate primary

In a stunning result that could reshape Democratic foreign policy debates, NBC News projected Tuesday that Abdul El-Sayed, a former Detroit health director and fierce critic of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, will defeat U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary. The projection came late on Aug. 5, 2026, as vote counting continued across the state.

A victory for the party’s progressive wing

El-Sayed’s projected win over Stevens marks a significant triumph for the Democratic Party’s progressive wing, which has pushed for a more critical stance toward Israel and increased support for Palestinian rights. Throughout his campaign, El-Sayed repeatedly criticized Israel’s actions in Gaza and called for an immediate ceasefire, positions that energized younger and more diverse voters while drawing sharp rebukes from establishment figures and pro-Israel advocacy groups.

Stevens, who has represented Michigan’s 11th Congressional District since 2019, was backed by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, one of the most influential pro-Israel lobbying organizations in the United States. AIPAC’s financial and organizational support had positioned Stevens as the favorite in the race, making El-Sayed’s projected victory all the more surprising to political observers.

The role of AIPAC and campaign funding

AIPAC’s involvement in the race drew national attention, with progressives pointing to it as an attempt to unseat a critic of Israel using unlimited campaign spending. The group’s political action committee and affiliated super PAC poured millions into supporting Stevens, flooding the airwaves with advertisements and mailers. In contrast, El-Sayed relied primarily on grassroots donations and a network of small-dollar supporters, a dynamic that has become a flashpoint in Democratic primaries across the country.

The outcome suggests that AIPAC’s influence may be waning within the Democratic Party, particularly in states with significant Arab American and Muslim populations. Michigan, home to one of the largest Arab American communities in the United States, has become a bellwether for the party’s internal divisions over the Israel-Hamas conflict. El-Sayed’s campaign tapped into that anger, turning a foreign policy issue into a decisive local one.

El-Sayed’s campaign message

El-Sayed, who previously ran for governor of Michigan in 2018 and served as Detroit’s health director under Mayor Mike Duggan, focused his campaign on healthcare, economic inequality, and civil rights. But his unapologetic stance on Gaza set him apart. On the trail, he argued that American security is tied to human rights and that the U.S. should leverage its diplomatic power to protect Palestinian civilians. “We cannot fund a war that is killing innocent people,” he often told crowds, drawing cheers and tears from attendees.

Stevens, meanwhile, defended her pro-Israel record and AIPAC support, saying she would always stand with Israel, a key U.S. ally. She emphasized her work in Congress on manufacturing and job creation, hoping to appeal to moderate Democrats and independents. But in a primary where turnout among progressive activists was high, her strategy proved insufficient.

National implications and next steps

El-Sayed’s projected victory sends a powerful signal to Democratic candidates nationwide that advocating for Palestinian rights is no longer a political liability. It also challenges President Biden’s approach to the Middle East, which has been criticized by progressives for providing unstinting military and diplomatic backing to Israel. The result could embolden primary challenges to other pro-Israel incumbents and intensify debates over a potential arms embargo or conditions on U.S. aid to Israel.

As vote counting continues, El-Sayed is expected to address supporters in Detroit, where he built his base. If his lead holds, he will face the Republican nominee in the general election in a state that both parties see as crucial to their Senate hopes. His victory in the primary, however, is already historic: it marks one of the most prominent defeats of an AIPAC-backed candidate to date and underscores the growing influence of the uncommitted movement and activists who have pushed the Democratic Party to reconsider its policies in the Middle East.

For now, the focus shifts to the November race, where El-Sayed will need to unite a divided party. His campaign has vowed to reach out to voters beyond the progressive base, citing his medical background and record on public health as areas of common ground. But even before the first general election ad runs, Tuesday’s result has already changed the conversation about what it means to be a Democrat in Michigan in 2026.