Iran seeks expanded Strait of Hormuz control in possible Oman deal

Iran is seeking to dramatically expand its influence over the Strait of Hormuz through a proposed agreement with Oman, according to officials who briefed The New York Times this week. The potential deal would hand Tehran control over areas that were considered international waters before the conflict, marking a major shift in the maritime balance of power in one of the world's most critical oil transit chokepoints.

The talks, described as ongoing and delicate, have drawn attention from regional capitals and Washington, which has long guaranteed freedom of navigation in the strait. The Iranian push comes amid a volatile security environment, with the 'before the war' reference hinting at a recent conflict that may have already redrawn the region's geopolitical map.

Expanding control beyond previous bounds

Under the mooted terms, Iran would assume authority over maritime zones that were previously neutral or under no state's exclusive jurisdiction. This would go beyond Iran's existing territorial waters or recognized rights, effectively extending its reach into shipping lanes that have historically been open to international transit.

For Tehran, the motivation is clear: the Strait of Hormuz is Iran's most potent strategic asset. Controlling a larger swath would give Iran greater leverage over oil shipments from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other Gulf producers. It could also allow Iran to monitor or even interdict vessels more aggressively, a capability that has been central to past confrontations with the US Navy.

Officials familiar with the negotiations caution that the agreement is not yet finalized, and significant hurdles remain. But the very prospect of such a transfer underscores how far the region's political and legal order has shifted.

Oman's strategic calculus

Oman, which shares the sensitive Musandam Peninsula that juts into the strait, has long played the role of a neutral mediator in the Gulf. The Omani government maintains close ties with both Iran and the West, often serving as a backchannel for negotiations. Agreeing to cede control over portions of those waters to Iran would be a notable departure from that balancing act.

Analysts suggest Omani officials may see the deal as a way to appease a powerful neighbor and reduce the risk of being caught in the crossfire of a wider conflict. The photo accompanying the report, showing vessels near Musandam, highlights how the geography of the peninsula makes Oman an indispensable partner for any maritime arrangement.

However, such a move would likely face intense criticism from Gulf Arab states and the United States, which have viewed Iranian naval assertiveness as a direct threat to their economic lifeline. Oman may also be extracting concessions in return, though no specifics have emerged.

Implications for regional security and global oil markets

About 20% of the world's oil and a significant share of liquefied natural gas transit the Strait of Hormuz daily. Any change in its status quo reverberates globally. If Iran gains control over formerly international waters, it could increase the risk of tanker delays, insurance premium hikes, and even military incidents.

The United States has historically deployed naval forces to the region to ensure open passage. A deal granting Iran expanded authority would directly challenge that longstanding mission, potentially prompting a more confrontational US posture or forcing a recalibration of alliances. For the Gulf states, it would mean living under de facto Iranian influence over their main export route, a prospect they have fiercely opposed in the past.

The timing is also sensitive. The reference to 'before the war' suggests the legal status of these waters was affected by a recent conflict, possibly one that involved Iran or its proxies. That context may provide Tehran with a window to press its claims, but it also raises the stakes for all parties.

Next steps and global reaction

Negotiations are expected to continue in the coming weeks, with both sides reportedly exploring a framework that could be presented as a confidence-building measure. However, the proposal is likely to meet stiff resistance from international stakeholders, and it remains unclear whether Oman will ultimately agree to terms.

A final agreement would not only redraw the map of the Strait of Hormuz but also set a precedent for how maritime rights are settled in the region. As officials in Washington and Gulf capitals weigh their response, the world's energy markets will be watching closely. The coming months may determine whether Iran's ambitious bid becomes a geopolitical reality or a flashpoint for the next crisis.