Second Phase of Iran-U.S. War: The 60-Day Strait of Hormuz Deal

The second phase of the Iran-U.S. conflict has begun, triggered by a temporary 60-day free passage agreement in the Strait of Hormuz signed on June 14. The deal, brokered by Oman, allows ships to pass without charge for a limited period while Iran and Oman work to define future maritime services and administration in the strategic waterway. This fragile truce highlights the escalating tensions between Tehran and Washington, as both sides vie for control over one of the world's most vital oil chokepoints.

Background of Tensions

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, carries about 20% of global oil supply. For years, Iran has threatened to disrupt shipping there in response to U.S. sanctions and military pressure. The recent escalation, often described as a second phase of the Iran-U.S. war, follows a series of incidents—including tanker seizures, drone attacks, and covert operations—that have raised fears of a broader confrontation. The June 14 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) represents an attempt to de-escalate, but its 60-day limit suggests it is a stopgap measure rather than a lasting solution.

The MoU and Its Details

According to the MoU, Iran agreed to permit ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz free of charge for exactly 60 days. In exchange, Iran and Oman will collaborate to define the future administration and maritime services in the region. This arrangement effectively gives Tehran temporary control over passage fees, while reducing immediate risks of confrontation. Omani mediators have long played a role in back-channel talks between Iran and the U.S., and this deal underscores their continued influence. However, the short duration indicates that the underlying issues—such as U.S. sanctions and Iranian demands for security guarantees—remain unresolved.

Implications for Global Oil Markets

The 60-day window provides a brief respite for global oil markets, which have been on edge due to potential disruptions. Shipping companies and insurers have faced soaring premiums, and any prolonged closure of the Strait could send crude prices skyrocketing. While the MoU temporarily eases those fears, analysts warn that it is not a permanent fix. The agreement essentially buys time for diplomacy, but if no broader deal is reached within two months, the risk of a catastrophic conflict could return. Traders are already watching for signs of further escalation, as Iran has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to disrupt maritime traffic.

Next Steps

The coming weeks will be critical. Iran and Oman are expected to hold further talks on long-term governance of the Strait, but progress depends on broader U.S.-Iran negotiations. Washington has not officially endorsed the MoU, and its stance could determine whether the agreement leads to a lasting détente or merely a pause before renewed hostilities. If the 60-day period expires without a comprehensive deal, the region may see a return to the brinkmanship that has characterized the first phase of the conflict. For now, the world watches as the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint in the ongoing Iran-U.S. war.