Heathrow expansion threatens thousands of regional UK jobs, report finds

A new analysis of government forecasts has found that expanding Heathrow Airport with a third runway would shift thousands of jobs from other UK regions to London and the South East, threatening the government's pledge to rebalance economic growth. The Department for Transport (DfT) economic paper, published last month, projects that airports across England and Wales will lose millions of passengers if the expansion proceeds, with devastating knock-on effects for local employment.

Key findings: jobs displaced, not created

According to economists studying the DfT modelling, Birmingham Airport alone would lose 7.5 million passengers annually by 2050—a decline equivalent to about 9,500 jobs foregone at the airport and in its supply chain. The New Economics Foundation (NEF) calculates that by 2050, 15,200 aviation jobs that would otherwise accrue in the regions, and 6,400 jobs at other London and South East airports, would instead go to Heathrow. Alex Chapman, head of economic policy at the NEF, said that the third runway 'will take spending out of the places that need it most—anathema to what [Prime Minister Andy] Burnham stands for.'

Impact on regions: West Midlands hardest hit

The West Midlands emerges as the biggest loser under the expansion plan. Nearly 10,000 jobs could vanish from the region as Birmingham Airport sees passenger numbers plummet. Other regional airports are also likely to suffer significant declines, undermining the government's rhetoric that the whole nation benefits from Heathrow expansion. The DfT modelling confirms that the overall economic boost from the runway would be modest—only up to 0.05% of GDP per year—far lower than the growth ministers had hoped for when former Chancellor Rachel Reeves championed the scheme.

Political implications: test for Burnham's 'No 10 North'

The findings cast fresh doubt on political support for the expansion, coming just over a week after Andy Burnham became Prime Minister. Burnham has previously argued that too much infrastructure spending goes to southern England and promised to rebalance investment with a 'No 10 North' approach. A DfT peer review of the GDP analysis cautions that 'it would be erroneous to claim a broad distribution of the gains from Heathrow to regions on the basis of the modelling.' The expansion's approval hinges on four tests set by government, one of which is that the whole nation should feel its benefit—a test the new data suggests may fail.

Broader economic and environmental questions

As the GDP case weakens and environmental damages loom large, critics question why the project is proceeding. Chapman noted that the winners appear to be foreign shareholders, who under current plans would receive guaranteed returns with minimal private risk. The DfT defends the expansion, with a spokesperson arguing that the NEF analysis 'doesn't factor in the potential for over 60,000 local jobs that Heathrow expansion will bring,' and that up to 40% of the £2.6bn economic boost would be felt outside London and the South East. However, by 2055, when the expansion is fully operational, passenger numbers at Birmingham are still forecast to be reduced.

The consultation on the Heathrow expansion national policy statement is now open, and MPs must ultimately vote to approve the third runway. With mounting evidence that regional economies may suffer, the government faces a difficult choice between pushing ahead with a signature infrastructure project and honouring its promise to level up the country.