Orange wave threatens Victoria: Can Labor hold back One Nation surge?

A populist wave is building in Victoria that could see Pauline Hanson's One Nation party win up to 30 seats in the state's November election, according to new projections. The forecast, presented at a recent Trades Hall Council strategic forum, shocked union leaders who had previously dismissed such gains as unrealistic. Now, with One Nation surging in polls and by-elections, the party threatens to become the second-largest force in parliament, eclipsing the Coalition and reshaping Victoria's political landscape.

The projection that stunned the union movement

In March, pollster Kos Samaras told a gathering of union officials that One Nation was on track to win a dozen lower house seats in Victoria. The audience was skeptical. But just months later, Trades Hall secretary Luke Hilakari says revised numbers suggest the party could take as many as 30 seats. To put that in perspective, the Liberal and National parties currently hold 29 seats in Victoria's Legislative Assembly. If the projections hold, One Nation would leap from having no lower house representation to becoming the dominant opposition force.

A global populist tide

The rise of One Nation in Victoria mirrors trends seen in the United States, United Kingdom, and Western Europe, where populist movements have decimated traditional centre-right parties. Jim Reed of the Resolve Political Monitor notes that One Nation has evolved from a protest movement into a vehicle for positive change among a broad cross-section of voters. The party is now drawing support from both the right and left, stealing votes from Labor as well as the Coalition. Federal MP Barnaby Joyce declared that the movement is 'not an aberration' but a lasting force.

Impact on the major parties

For Labor, the challenge is twofold: it must defend its working-class base from One Nation's appeal while also fending off the Greens and teal independents on its left flank. The Coalition, already struggling to retain its identity, faces an existential threat from the populist right. The November election will be less a traditional Labor versus Liberal contest than a multi-front battle between establishment and anti-establishment forces. Marginal seats in Melbourne's mortgage belt, once decided by two-party preferences, could become battlegrounds for a three-way fight.

What comes next

As the campaign heats up, Labor is scrambling to counter the surge. Trades Hall has commissioned research on countering right-wing populism, titled 'Antidote,' which argues that the left must address the grievances that fuel such movements. Whether these efforts can stem the orange tide remains to be seen. One thing is clear: the next Victorian election will be a watershed moment, testing whether traditional parties can survive the populist wave or whether the state, like so many others, will see its political order upended.